Produktbild: Probably Not

Probably Not Future Prediction Using Probability and Statistical Inference

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Beschreibung

Produktdetails

Einband

Taschenbuch

Erscheinungsdatum

04.09.2019

Verlag

John Wiley & Sons

Seitenzahl

352

Maße (L/B/H)

22.9/15.5/1.8 cm

Gewicht

590 g

Auflage

2nd edition

Sprache

Englisch

ISBN

978-1-119-51810-5

Beschreibung

Produktdetails

Einband

Taschenbuch

Erscheinungsdatum

04.09.2019

Verlag

John Wiley & Sons

Seitenzahl

352

Maße (L/B/H)

22.9/15.5/1.8 cm

Gewicht

590 g

Auflage

2nd edition

Sprache

Englisch

ISBN

978-1-119-51810-5

Herstelleradresse

Libri GmbH
Europaallee 1
36244 Bad Hersfeld
DE

Email: gpsr@libri.de

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  • Produktbild: Probably Not
  • Acknowledgments

    About The Companion Site

    Introduction

    1 An Introduction to Probability

    Predicting The Future

    Rule Making

    Random Events and Probability

    The Lottery

    Coin Flipping

    The Coin Flip Strategy That Can't Lose

    The Prize Behind The Door

    The Checker Board

    Comments

    Problems

    2 Probability Distribution Functions and Some Math Basics

    The Probability Distribution Function

    Averages and Weighted Averages

    Expected Values

    The Basic Coin Flip Game

    PDF Symmetry

    Standard Deviation

    Cumulative Distribution Function

    The Confidence Interval

    Final Points

    Rehash and Histograms

    Problems

    3 Building A Bell

    Problems

    4 Random Walks

    The One-Dimensional Random Walk

    Some Subsequent Calculations

    Diffusion

    Problems

    5 Life Insurance

    Introduction

    Life Insurance

    Insurance As Gambling

    Life Tables

    Birth Rates and Population Stability

    Life Tables, Again

    Premiums

    Social Security - Sooner Or Later?

    Problems

    6 The Binomial Theorem

    Introduction

    The Binomial Probability Formula

    Permutations and Combinations

    Large Number Approximations

    The Poisson Distribution

    Disease Clusters

    Clusters

    Problems

    7 Pseudorandom Numbers and Monte -Carlo Simulations

    Random Numbers and Simulations

    Pseudo-Random Numbers

    The Middle Square PRNG

    The Linear Congruential PRNG

    A Normal Distribution Generator

    An Arbitrary Distribution Generator

    Monte Carlo Simulations

    A League of Our Own

    Discussion

    Notes

    8 Some Gambling Games In Detail

    The Basic Coin Flip Game

    The "Ultimate Winning Strategy"

    Parimutuel Betting

    The Gantt Chart and A Hint of Another Approach

    Problems

    9 Scheduling and Waiting

    Introduction

    Scheduling Appointments In The Doctor's Office

    Lunch with A Friend

    Waiting for A Bus

    Problems

    10 Combined and Conditional Probabilities

    Introduction

    Functional Notation (Again)

    Conditional Probability

    Medical Test Results

    The Shared Birthday Problem

    Problems

    11 Bayesian Statistics

    Bayes Theorem

    Multiple Possibilities

    Will Monty Hall Ever Go Away?

    Philosophy

    The Prosecutor's Fallacy

    Continuous Functions

    Credible Intervals

    Gantt Charts (Again)

    Problems

    12 Estimation Problems

    The Number of Locomotives Problem

    Number of Locomotives, Improved Estimate

    Decision Making

    The Light House Problem

    The Likelihood Function

    The Light House Problem II

    13 Two Paradoxes

    Introduction

    Parrondo's Paradox

    Another Parrondo Game

    The Parrondo Ratchet

    Simpson's Paradox

    Problems

    14 Benford's Law

    Introduction

    History

    The 1/x Distribution

    Goodness of Fit Measure

    Smith's Analysis

    Problems

    15 Networks, Infectious Diseases and Chain Letters

    Introduction

    Degrees of Separation

    Propagation Along The Networks

    Some Other Networks

    Neighborhood Chains

    Chain Letters

    Comments

    16 Introduction To Frequentist Statistical Inference

    Introduction

    Sampling

    Sample Distributions and Standard Deviations

    Estimating Population Average From A Sample

    The Student-T Distribution

    Polling Statistics

    Did A Sample Come From A Given Distribution?

    A Little Reconciliation

    Correlation and Causality

    Correlation Coefficient

    Regression Lines

    Regression To The Mean

    Problems

    17 Statistical Mechanics and Thermodynamics

    Introduction

    Statistical Mechanics

    (Concepts of) Thermodynamics

    18 Chaos and Quanta

    Introduction

    Chaos

    Probability In Quantum Mechanic

    Appendix

    Introduction

    Continuous Distributions and Integrals

    Exponential Functions

    Index