Part One: Setting the Stage: The Structural Nature of Organizations and the Role of Events and the Emergence of a Crisis Cascade

Chapter One: An introduction to giving (and receiving) advice. Ensuring those in leadership or decision making positions have the information needed to lead when designing or managing remediation and change processes.

   A. Establishing the needs of the decision maker and advisor in the midst of a crisis

Who are your stakeholders? What are their information needs? What are your sources of information? How do you ensure the validity and reliability of the information you collect and offer? What happens if things change, the information doesn't fit, you are mislead or don't get the information you need from ANY stakeholder (up or down in the information chain?)

B. Influential behavior within boundaries, limits and personal competencies. Understanding the situation, the state of affairs. Events and the Physical Nature of Organizations: Examining the role Structure Contributes to Defining Behavior in Organizations and within Social Networks

The structural nature of organizations: The Typology of Organizations The value a separate analysis of the four types of organizations contributes to understanding the impact of a crisis on organizations Organizational type and structure and stakeholder needs, its ideology, the organization's brand, its stakeholders and the role of "social enforcers" Features and benefits of the four types of organizations Modeling the complexity of an organization's ideological profile: The contribution of organizational complexities to the performance and event management processes Using Markov chains to illustrate the integrity of relationships among an organization's social network

On one level, a structural analysis of organization seeks to identify and define its operational components. In the analysis, reviews of an organization's make-up can identify and describe its components and how they function. At a deeper level, this type of analysis can look beyond preconceptions to reveal aspects of the organization's very leadership; the thinking behind structure and operations.

Assume that the crisis, catastrophe and disaster each has a "concentration" point; a central element that serves as an identifier for the event state AND its intensity. This point defines the crisis, catastrophe or disaster. It is a point of departure for efforts to describe, classify or, characterize the phenomenon for those expected to facilitate management efforts. But efforts here do not stop with mere classification or labeling activities. It is as this point that whatever description or characterization is offered these must be accompanied by preliminary recommendations for action.

The organizational models used in the book have, by design, an element of flexibility associated with their use. They allow for current comparisons and speculation regarding how the organization will function over time and when experiencing different conditions and scenarios. Finally, these models provide immediate benefit to on-going research efforts. By providing a baseline from which to look they contribute to our understanding of what an organization is experiencing how those experiences compare with other organizations within and outside of the social network or industry as a whole. This is an important point, especially when viewed in terms of an organization's social network. The emergence and effects of a crisis, catastrophe or, disaster are not limited to a particular organization in a network. Each network member, and indeed the network as an entity are affected.

Researchers have a lot of tools at their disposal to examine phenomena like crises, catastrophes and disasters. In this chapter we explore the ways the use of the tools can become a problem for both the practitioner and client. For example, restricting or limiting the use of tools and data derived from their use is a greater problem. Tools, like those described in this book will only provide a gateway to understanding the causes or consequences of a crisis unless they are also applied to an organization's social network and the stakeholders defining that network. A broader, more inclusive application of the tools described illustrates the truly dynamic ways a crisis, catastrophe and disaster permeate the ecological make-up a social network and its membership.

Chapter 2. Emerging turmoil, disorder and confusion:   Identifying and monitoring the First Signs of Trouble

A. Challenges associated when tracking the emerging turmoil, disorder and, confusion triggered by an event's mismanagement.

Organizational Turmoil: The Morphology of Event to Crisis to Catastrophe to Disaster Adapting to a crisis, catastrophe and disaster by demanding and introducing change Using Demand Curves to measure impact of a crisis on an organization Dealing with the layers of change and change resistance

B. Types of trauma potentially emerging within the organization; their features and detriment, disadvantage, drawbacks

Operational Trauma features and detriment, disadvantage, drawbacks Brand Trauma features and detriment, disadvantage, drawbacks Architectural Trauma features and detriment, disadvantage, drawbacks

Knowing risk exposures and their sources can serve as a potential forecast of things to come.    Organizational risk is important because of its association with three types of trauma: Operational, architectural and brand trauma.   Each type of trauma carries its own level of risk exposure and, consequently, requires trauma-specific treatment protocols. As a crisis unfolds and particularly as the crisis morphs into its two other states, these traumas become a critical focal point for management efforts. An organization cannot return to a risk-managed state without addressing these three traumas.

Operational trauma links to an organizations key elements: its processes and procedures, stakeholders, materials and equipment, its culture and, management. Operation trauma affects processes, the ways things are done. Architectural trauma reflects the impact of a crisis on the organization's infrastructure. Architectural trauma tags technologies, hardware and software systems -- the physical make-up of the organization. These are points where internal and external stakeholders interface with the organization either to do their work or to conduct business. Addressing architectural trauma can require technical competencies that are beyond the capacity of the organization's staff to provide.

The third type of trauma, labeled brand trauma, reflects potential vulnerabilities in a stakeholder's image or representation of the organization. Is the organization trustworthy, reliable, faithful, and consistent? Should I believe or believe in messages regarding the organization's products, services, quality, safety, security or positions regarding the same? Trauma at the brand level is a personal construct of the individual stakeholder. And, perhaps most importantly, brand trauma and subsequent images of the organization may be defined differently by as many stakeholders as there are in the organization's social network and given their inherent relationship with the organization. The bottom line: "How much will I tolerate before I leave?"

Chapter 3. Detailing the Sequential nature of Organizational Turmoil: the Event to Disaster Phenomenon. Expecting the Unexpected (a How-to guide)

A. Organizational Turmoil is dynamic, continuously unique in its many manifestations and, must be tracked across four different types of organizations!

Focusing on negative events as turmoil triggers and their subsequent morphing into crises, catastrophes and disasters Using wave theory to characterize and measure the relationship among the four components of turmoil and trauma stemming Parsing out implications for an organization, its brand, ideology and social network as the probability of events unfold.

B. Dealing with the systemic nature of the demands facing crisis managers resulting from continual changes in the morphing phenomenon

1. Trying to assume a "status quo" can be risky when the morphing phenomenon is triggered.

a. competing priorities

b. distance

c. personal biases and competencies (personal, professional, social)

d. lack of familiarity

2. Tree Diagrams as tools to map and demonstrate the rippling effects linked to the four turmoil triggers.

a. How and why each trauma trigger is important and dangerous

b. The use of dispersion models illustrate the emerging trauma and trauma effects

c. Stakeholder analysis before and after events

C. Examining the particular ways an unfolding crisis to disaster phenomenon effects the organization's core system elements and strategies for dealing with internal hemorrhaging.

1. The social networks architectural, operational and brand traumas.

      a. Ways architectural trauma impacts a social network under stress

      b. Operational trauma's implosive effects on a social network

      c. Network brand trauma leads to a desire "not to be involved or affiliated"

2. Products are left to be warehoused, somewhere, somehow

3. Service emphasis shifts to managing warranty costs

4. Quality and service become fodder for jokes and ridicule; the epitome of hypocrisy

5. Safety issues shift from "product and operational safety" to image management safety efforts

Wave theory is a property typically used in the natural and physical sciences. Properties of wave theory can describe the event to crisis to catastrophe to disaster string unique to this book. Events are distinctive. Each has its own profile and that means it exists as its own contained state. When an event is subject to a fact based analysis it is possible to describe particular features, to measure intensities and, of course, to identify people or things associated with the event.

Reworking wave theory in this instance allows for the stable use of principles associated the movement of energy from one state to another.   Indeed, if there were no differences among the three different phenomena examined then a it would be possible to talk about a logical progression from one state to another. The quest documented here is the quantification of each distinct state, with its comparison and contrasts across a number of salient variables, so that estimates of both the nature of the states and their impacts on the organization's key features, for example, its brand, stakeholders, products, services etc., result. The reader will see this as a revealing discussion; not only are elements in the morphology of tragedy examined and defined but, as importantly, also established are discernible conclusions regarding the nature of the phenomenon and subsequent effects.

Chapter 4. Emotive Complexity: The "Human Side" of Crises and Crisis Management. What Makes for a Successful Organization?

A.   Ways emerging turmoil, disorder, trauma and confusion influence each of the four different types of organizations and their social networks

B. Tracking the effects of morphing across different types of organizations, within the complex make-up of a given organization and, within and across the stakeholder network.

Ways morphing manifests itself within and across the different types of organizations Tracking morphing within and across the stakeholder network

C. Detailing the Dilemma: What began as an "event" becomes characterized as strings of emerging complexities

Implications associated with the morphing across the crisis-catastrophe-disaster spectrum for an organization, its brand and social network Morphing implications for each of the four types of organizations Trauma's encroaching and obsessive nature The decay of the brand and the important brand affiliation

Mismanaging the initial event in whatever form can be disruptive. In the worst case, mismanagement may lead to an event morphing into another separate and distinct state, a crisis. This crisis is different from the event preceding it and, should the crisis also be mismanaged it can morph into a disaster and so on. What is most interesting about this process and the resulting states is that each is definable and observable in nature and, importantly, each has their own features. For the organization, this means that with each morphing the new state requires particular strategies and tactics, skills and competencies for resolution to occur. There are no silver bullets or cookie-cutter approaches.

Our application of wave theory to this morphing process facilitates analysis of the relationships among the string phenomena, from event to disaster. We see this string like one might think of waves on an ocean: Riding the same body of water or air currents but distinct from one another. This approach is more than metaphoric, however. By borrowing from both wave theory and the mathematics associated with this concept we can get a better, fuller picture of the nature of tragedy in organizations, beginning with the progression from event to disaster. We treat each as energy sources and we then explore the gaffes, blunders, mistakes, poor decisions or actions enabling this morphology to begin and subsequently evolve. As mentioned earlier, there is not necessarily a causal relationship among these states; one does not naturally lead to another. Their relationship, however, is evident and the application of wave theory helps both define and measure each unique phenomenon as well as their relationship among them.

Chapter 5.   Structural and social Determinism and the emerging turmoil, disorder, trauma and confusion associated with an emerging crisis. Looking for explanations.

A. Deterministic orientations often result in poor problem identification

The emergence of communication disruptions and avoidance routines Collaborating, partnering on projects may end or be prevented Confidence, conviction, faith in the organization or leader's directions may be affected Systemic effects on comprehension, cognition, and reasoning: implications for decision-making Compromising effects of time constraints, forced learning curves and, broken relationships: setting the stage for sacrificing thinking, deliberating and, cogitating

B. Tracking the relationship between the emergence of a crisis and organizational and individual values

1.      Exploring the relationship between an individual's Values, Actions and Consequences

2.      The relationship between Affiliation Patterns (Tafoya 2017) and Defensive Practices

3.      Exploring ways individuals manipulate affiliation patterns and defensive practices to fabricate their own immunity to information, ideas and, conditions

4.      Like the body's immune system, informational immunity is nurtured by adaptive learning

5.      Documenting the generic, phenotypic traits for organizations, brands, social nets, stakeholders.

6.      How the dynamic nature of the social network influences the executive teams and advisory group's roles and positions.

Whenever an individual follows a book or rule written in the extreme and to the exclusion of other thoughts or ideas, plans or suggestions, does so to avoid thinking and decision making.

The progression through the string sequence beginning with an event and morphing through to a disaster is not the only processes defined or spawned and needing to be considered. We also must consider as much of the scope and scale of change processes stakeholders and their organizations are experiencing. One way to do this is to return to the use of demand curves. In this instance demand curves measure ways in which processes within an organization or its social network can shift or change as the impact of the crisis, catastrophe or, disaster materialize. One obvious example is the amount of "time on task" those in an organization have given the demands place on them. Researchers use this notion to measure performance or productivity, for example, by assuming there is a relationship between the amount of time spent on a task and production. It is a traditional benchmark in organizational theory. Now imagine how this simple illustration might manifest itself throughout an entire stakeholder network!

Part Two: Failure's Core Complexities: Leadership, Culture and, Complications

Chapter 6. Features and implications of emerging turmoil, disorder, trauma and confusion on the organization's executive management and advisory boards

A. Leadership at fault

Characteristics of disappointing leaders Failures in performance management at senior leadership levels Failure to address poor performance: implications for contracts, litigation, performance management, etc

B. The contaminating nature of poor leadership

1.      Fair and unfair influencing effects of position

2.      Self-reinforcing behaviors: affiliation blindness

3.      Manipulation, bullying, lying

4.      Various roles for advisory boards and personnel

5.      When advisory boards or personnel can't or don't act

6.      Approaching the executive staff and advisory boards change agents in a crisis

How and in what ways does time on task change when a crisis emerges? For some in the organization shifting time demands can be significant and demand curves are one way to measure that change.   The "right" crisis can affect an organization from the boardroom to the shop floor. However, what if the needed or expected involvement of all levels within the organization doesn't occur? Is this one way a crisis state begins to morph into a disaster? Clearly, there are sufficient examples to demonstrate the emergence of this sub-crisis state. As a reader you can pick your topic of interest. Sexual abuse within the movie industry or among priests is one theme populating the social media. Another is can be described as "Executive Oversight". This refers to those instances when executive or advisory teams apparently missed the significance of an event. An oil rig explosion or a bank's unorthodox use of sales goals to grow a business are two other examples.   Who misused time on task in these instances? Or, rather, who did not re-define the tasks needing attention as a crisis unfolded?

The use of quantitative and qualitative tools throughout this text enables the study of a particularly unique element associated with the emergence of an event and subsequent morphing: they explain how activity shifts in organizations because of a crisis. Our previous research demonstrated the impact a crisis has on an organization, its staff and social network but the addition of tools like wave theory, morphing and, demand curves sharpen our understanding of what's occurring and why. In these instances, mapping of change against decisions and actions taken over time provides the needed clues. Then, once done, this enables another aspect of research presented in the book: to understand the life cycle of the stream of phenomena from event to disaster, as well as the often-overlooked sub-strata life cycles that also define that stream. With this information, it is possible to compare and contrast differences within each element of the crisis-to-disaster wave tragedy as well as the overall stream associated with a singular phenomenon. The model that emerges from this analysis demonstrates the particular behavioral patters within the tragedy-encumbered organization. This is a particularly rich contribution presented in the book because it provides insights into both the nature of these crisis phenomena as well as the role of the phenomena vis a vis different types of organizations. Once established this may facilitate even deeper probes into the nature of behavior in the face of a crisis, catastrophe and disaster.

Chapter 7. Leadership and Governance Fault Zones: Documenting and measuring ownership of a crisis across stakeholder groups.

A. Management and Mismanagement, Events and Crises

The parsing of crisis ownership across the stakeholder network. Ways a crisis' profile manifests itself differently across a stakeholder network. How the contribution of an organization's culture is is defined and measured?

B. When the effects of crisis trauma is measured in human terms

1.      In the end, who owns the crisis and its effects? Where do responsibilities lie?

2.      What are the dynamic costs of change?

3.      Conflicts emerging as stakeholders compete for finite resources.

4.      Settling the Score: Derivative Lawsuits,

Crisis management is not a new subject for study. Pull away the veneer of the stated purpose for many management books and themes and elements related to crisis management or risk management appear. These texts tend to focus on enablers of a crisis, catastrophe or disaster. Personal attributes like poor management, economics, discrimination, bias are one path while treatments of skill, competency or capabilities are another. This book also offers management tools but not in ways one normally uses them given this subject matter.

Many distinct processes are associated with the emergence and evolution of a crisis, disaster or catastrophe and management performance is one of them. Management performance can be a central enabler to these phenomena, a key ingredient in the handling of these phenomena and/or central to their resolution. However, crisis contributors and management are best understood by blending new theoretical material into classical discussions associated with management practices. Are some types of organizations more vulnerable to particular types of crises?   Can some organizations be enhanced with properties that make them immune to a crisis and if possible what would this conditioning look like? How do, or should, expectations for crisis management change over a crisis' lifespan? Moreover, what role does time play in the emergence, evolution and management of a crisis? Finally, can organizational stakeholders cultivate their own biases, prejudices or, sentiments by nurturing a personal informational immunity driven sophisticated, adaptive learning?

Chapter 8 Conclusions: Living with Consequences

A. On the individual Level

Revisiting the Value-Action-Consequences model The effects and meaning of a social stigma. (Shame, disgrace, dishonor vs. ….)

B. On the enterprise, group and community level

1.      Social Media and Social Presence: Forget about never being able to go home again . . . social media's impacts means you may never find a home again.

2.      Why people don't use their instincts; anger drives out reason

3.      Relationship Decay, Termination

One period of crisis management frequently receiving scant if any attention is that point when or after the crisis is "resolved". What is the end-point for a crisis, catastrophe or disaster? It is an important question because effects are a very real part of these three phenomena. There are the obvious, immediate effects and then there are the effects which can last a lifetime, long after the event is declared "ended". Both theory and fact serve as the foundation for this conclusion.    In short, viewed in terms of effects a crisis, catastrophe or, disaster never ends for some. The theory assumes that an event is a discrete phenomenon but in fact it is a process with, technically, no definable end.

Events "live on" in their effects. Post Traumatic Stress Disorder, the painful memories and sentiments for the loss of a loved one or, the dramatic feelings one has for a life event, like the struggle with a disease or the actions of a co-worker are examples. Some "official" may have deemed the event ended but for the stakeholders and organizations involved, no end may ever be in sight. These are familiar, personal consequences associated with events but social effects also are evident to mark transactions to new transitions in the life cycle of an event

Hate crimes and racist attacks live on in demonstrations, counter attacks or fear. Cheating, thefts, abuses of power linger in bruised or damaged reputations, loss of power or terminations. And, willful damages to an environment can live on in legislation, civil actions or, new policies and procedures. These may be formal or informal, legal or unauthorized, planned or spontaneous but whatever their nature they are important because what they reflect that once a crisis' emergences a struggle between competing forces is launched as both internal and external stakeholders seek to meet their needs, wants and desires by resolving the event in their favor.

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