Preface xxi
Acknowledgments xxiii
Abbreviations and Acronyms Used in this Book xxv
1 Introduction to Reliability Engineering 1
1.1 What is Reliability Engineering? 1
1.2 Why Teach Reliability Engineering? 2
1.3 Why Do Engineering Products Fail? 4
1.4 Probabilistic Reliability 6
1.5 Repairable and Non-repairable Items 7
1.6 The Pattern of Failures With Time (Bathtub Curve) 8
1.7 The Development of Reliability Engineering 9
1.8 Courses, Conferences, and Literature 11
1.9 Organizations Involved in Reliability Work 12
1.10 Reliability as an Effectiveness Parameter 12
1.11 Reliability Program Activities 12
1.12 Reliability Economics and Management 14
Questions 16
Selected Bibliography 17
Periodic Publications on Reliability 17
2 Reliability Mathematics 19
2.1 Introduction 19
2.2 Variation 19
2.3 Probability Concepts 21
2.4 Rules of Probability 22
2.5 Continuous Variation 27
2.6 Continuous Distribution Functions 32
2.7 Summary of Continuous Statistical Distributions 40
2.8 Variation in Engineering 40
2.9 Discrete Variation 46
2.10 Statistical Confidence 49
2.11 Statistical Hypothesis Testing 50
2.12 Non-parametric Inferential Methods 53
2.13 Goodness of Fit 55
2.14 Computer Software for Statistics 57
2.15 Practical Conclusions 57
Questions 58
Selected Bibliography 61
3 Life Data Analysis and Probability Plotting 63
3.1 Introduction 63
3.2 Life Data Classification 64
3.3 Ranking of Data 67
3.4 Weibull Distribution 70
3.5 Computerized Data Analysis and Probability Plotting 77
3.6 Confidence Bounds for Life Data Analysis 80
3.7 Choosing the Best Distribution and Assessing the Results 87
3.8 Conclusions 95
Questions 95
Selected Bibliography 100
4 Repairable Systems 101
4.1 Introduction 101
4.2 Renewal Process 102
4.3 Non-Parametric and Graphical Methods 112
4.4 Conclusions 115
Questions 115
Selected Bibliography 117
5 Monte Carlo Simulation 119
5.1 Introduction 119
5.2 Monte Carlo Simulation Basics 119
5.3 Additional Statistical Distributions 119
5.4 Sampling a Statistical Distribution 122
5.5 Running a Monte Carlo Simulation 125
5.6 Monte Carlo Method Summary 129
Questions 130
Selected Bibliography 132
6 Load-Strength Interference 133
6.1 Introduction 133
6.2 Load and Strength Models 133
6.3 Analysis of Load-Strength Interference 138
6.4 Multiple Load Applications 141
6.5 Dynamic Models 142
6.6 Practical Aspects 144
Questions 145
Selected Bibliography 147
7 Reliability Prediction and Modeling 149
7.1 Introduction 149
7.2 Fundamental Limitations of Reliability Prediction 150
7.3 Standards-Based Reliability Prediction 151
7.4 Other Methods for Reliability Predictions 157
7.5 Practical Aspects of Reliability Prediction 159
7.6 Systems Reliability Models 160
7.7 Availability of Repairable Systems 164
7.8 Modular Design 168
7.9 Block Diagram Analysis 169
7.10 Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) 173
7.12 Petri Nets 181
7.13 Reliability Apportionment 184
7.14 Conclusions 185
Questions 186
Selected Bibliography 192
8 Design for Reliability 195
8.1 Introduction 195
8.2 Design for Reliability Process 196
8.3 Identify 198
8.4 Design 203
8.5 Analyze 215
8.6 Verify 216
8.7 Validate 216
8.8 Control 217
8.9 Assessing the DfR Capability of an Organization 220
8.10 Summary 221
Questions 221
Selected Bibliography 223
9 Reliability of Mechanical Components and Systems 225
9.1 Introduction 225
9.2 Mechanical Stress, Strength, and Fracture 225
9.3 Fatigue 229
9.4 Creep 235
9.5 Wear 236
9.6 Corrosion 237
9.7 Vibration and Shock 238
9.8 Temperature Effects 242
9.9 Materials 244
9.10 Components 245
9.11 Processes 246
Questions 247
Selected Bibliography 249
10 Electronic Systems Reliability 251
10.1 Introduction 251
10.2 Reliability of Electronic Components 252
10.3 Component Types and Failure Mechanisms 255
10.4 Power Electronics 278
10.5 Device Failure Modes and Their Distributions 279
10.6 Circuit and System Aspects 281
10.7 Design for Reliability in Electronic Systems 282
10.8 Parameter Variation and Tolerances 288
10.9 Design for Production, Test, and Maintenance 291
Questions 292
Selected Bibliography 294
11 Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) and Design of Experiments (DOE) 297
11.1 Introduction 297
11.2 Statistical Design of Experiments and Analysis of Variance 297
11.3 Randomizing the Data 308
11.4 Engineering Interpretation of Results 309
11.5 The Taguchi Method 310
11.6 Conclusions 313
Questions 315
Selected Bibliography 317
12 Reliability Testing 319
12.1 Introduction 319
12.2 Planning Reliability Testing 320
12.3 Test Environments 322
12.4 Testing for Reliability and Durability. Accelerated Testing 331
12.5 Test Planning 340
12.6 Failure Reporting, Analysis, and Corrective Action Systems (FRACAS) 341
Questions 343
Selected Bibliography 345
13 Analyzing Reliability Data and Accelerated Testing 347
13.1 Introduction 347
13.2 Pareto Analysis 347
13.3 Accelerated Test Data Analysis 349
13.4 Acceleration Factor 349
13.5 Acceleration Models 350
13.6 Field-Test Relationship 355
13.7 Statistical Analysis of Accelerated Test Data 356
13.8 Reliability Analysis of Repairable Systems 359
13.9 Cusum Charts 360
13.10 Exploratory Data Analysis and Proportional Hazards Modeling 362
13.11 Field and Warranty Data Analysis 364
Questions 368
Selected Bibliography 372
14 Reliability Demonstration and Growth 375
14.1 Introduction 375
14.2 Reliability Metrics 375
14.3 Test to Success (Success-Run Method) 376
14.4 Test to Failure Method 378
14.5 Extended Life Test 378
14.6 Continuous Testing 381
14.7 Degradation Analysis 382
14.8 Demonstrated Reliability vs. Population Reliability 385
14.9 Combining Results Using Bayesian Statistics 386
14.10 Non-parametric Methods 388
14.11 Reliability Demonstration Software 388
14.12 Practical Aspects of Reliability Demonstration 389
14.13 Standard Methods for Repairable Systems 390
14.14 Reliability Growth and Monitoring 395
14.15 Making Product Reliability Grow 402
Questions 404
Selected Bibliography 407
15 Reliability in Manufacture 409
15.1 Introduction 409
15.2 Control of Production Variability 409
15.3 Control Charts 411
15.4 Control of Human Variation 418
15.5 Acceptance Sampling 419
15.6 Improving the Process. Problem Solving 424
15.7 Stress Screening 428
15.8 Failure Reporting Analysis and Corrective Action System (FRACAS) in Production 431
15.9 Conclusions 432
Questions 432
Selected Bibliography 434
16 Human Reliability Analysis 435
J. Robert Taylor and Igor Kozine
16.1 Introduction 435
16.2 Human Performance and Error Taxonomy 436
16.3 Quantitative Methods of HEP Estimation 439
16.4 Identification of Human Error Possibilities: Action Error Analysis 445
16.5 Quantification of Human Error Scenarios Combined With A Technical Failure 452
16.6 Causal Analysis 452
16.7 Data for Human Error Probability Quantification 457
16.8 Models of System Reliability Accounting for Human Error 459
16.9 Conclusions 463
Questions 463
Selected Bibliography 465
17 Maintainability, Maintenance, and Availability 469
17.1 Introduction 469
17.2 Availability Measures 470
17.3 Maintenance Time Distributions 473
17.4 Preventive Maintenance Strategy 474
17.5 FMEA and FTA in Maintenance Planning 478
17.6 Maintenance Schedules 478
17.7 Technology Aspects 479
17.8 Calibration 481
17.9 Maintainability 482
17.10 Integrated Logistic Support 484
Questions 485
Selected Bibliography 486
18 Reliability Management 489
18.1 Corporate Policy for Reliability 489
18.2 Integrated Reliability Programs 489
18.3 Specifying Reliability 492
18.4 Reliability and Costs 494
18.5 Safety and Product Liability 499
18.6 Standards for Reliability, Quality, and Safety Programs 499
18.7 Managing Lower-Tier Suppliers 502
18.8 Reliability Manuals 503
18.9 The Project Reliability Plan 505
18.10 Use of External Services (Outsourcing) 506
18.11 Customer Management of Reliability 507
18.12 Product Sustainment Activities 509
18.13 Reliability Training and Expertise 511
18.14 Reliability Capability and Maturity of an Organization 512
18.15 Managing Production Quality 514
18.16 Choosing the Methods: Strategy and Tactics 516
18.17 AI in Practical Reliability Engineering 517
18.18 Conclusions: The Importance of Reliability Management 518
Questions 520
Selected Bibliography 521
Appendix 1 Software Reliability 523
Appendix 2 Kolmogorov-Smirnov Tables 549
Appendix 3 Chi-square Distribution and MTTF/MTBF Calculations 551
Appendix 4 Matrix Algebra Revision 553
Appendix 5 Reliability, Maintainability, and Safety Plan Example 555
Index 561
